Craps Strategy: Risk Management and Bet Selection

Strategy Positioning

Craps strategy is a capital-allocation exercise within a fixed probability system. No staking plan changes expected value; operational outcomes depend on exposure sizing, bet mix, and session governance.

Core Framework: Line Bets as Base Exposure

Pass Line and Don’t Pass wagers provide the lowest expected loss per decision in standard craps. Treat these as the base layer of exposure, then allocate optional risk only after the point is established.

• Use Pass Line for a shooter-aligned position.
• Use Don’t Pass for an inverse position.
• Keep proposition exposure outside the base layer.

Odds Bets: Controlled Upscaling

Odds bets can be placed behind qualifying line bets after a point is set. Many casinos pay odds at probability-linked rates rather than embedding margin into the odds portion. This lowers the blended expected loss per unit staked, with higher session volatility as stake size increases.

• Define an odds multiple cap aligned to bankroll, not table maximums.
• Scale odds only after the point is active.
• Avoid “chasing” by increasing odds after losses.

Low-Noise Portfolio: Place 6 and Place 8

Place bets on 6 and 8 are commonly deployed as medium-variance positions with frequent hit rates. This can stabilise session pacing compared with centre-table propositions. Verify table payout terms at the felt, since pricing varies by venue.

• Use Place 6/8 as discretionary exposure, separated from line bets.
• Keep unit size consistent; avoid progressive escalation.
• Remove place bets during elevated drawdown periods.

Avoiding Margin Traps: Proposition Concentration

Centre-table proposition bets often carry higher expected loss and compress outcomes into short cycles. They fit entertainment spend profiles, not capital-efficiency objectives. Ring-fence these wagers with strict allocation limits.

• Cap proposition exposure to a small fraction of session bankroll.
• Use fixed units only.
• Exit proposition exposure after a pre-set loss limit.

Session Governance and Bankroll Controls

Adopt a session mandate with pre-defined unit sizing, loss ceiling, and profit lock-in rules. A practical model uses three controls: entry budget, loss stop, and a profit threshold that triggers partial de-risking.

• Unit size: small fraction of session bankroll.
• Loss stop: hard session exit point.
• Profit rule: reduce optional exposure after reaching target.

Execution Discipline

Table workflow impacts outcomes via error risk and delayed placement. Place bets between rolls, keep hands off the layout during live dice, and confirm dealer acknowledgement on changes. Strategy value is realised through consistent execution, not improvisation.